What Will Happen
“A strategy is necessary because the future is unpredictable” – Robert Waterman.
We are in a global recession. There’s no denying it at this point. Some countries will recover. Before this is over, though, some countries will probably fail and not make it through. Decades of fine-tuning and throwing all our eggs in the basket of a global supply chain and modern conveniences favored over know-how and skills have weakened us and made us more vulnerable to collapse than previous generations. We are less self-suffiicent and more dependent upon grids and supply chains that are failing dramatically. Compound this with lax banking regulations, decades of loose monetary policies, extreme weather cycles and events, and unprecedented population and housing growth. It is easy to see that this global recession may be the worst and longest-lasting we have ever known.
So when will it end? Will it end or get much worse? In this blog, we will explain how long this is likely to last, the signs to watch for that it’s getting better or worse, and what you should be doing now to survive whatever fate comes your way. Let’s unpack this global recession…
Download the Prepper’s Recession Proof Economic Collapse Guide today. We’ll post a link below or visit cityprepping.com/moneyprep for a free guide to help you start recession-proofing your life and emerging even stronger when the economy recovers.
GLOBAL DISCONNECTION
Another example of unsustainable resource shifts can be seen in America’s #1 imported bottled water– Fiji water. This artesian water is bottled at the source in those iconic square plastic bottles over 5,000 miles away. It is then shipped on diesel-burning cargo ships and via diesel trucks to consumers across the country. Understandably, such a system for beef, electronics, artesian water, liquified natural gas, tomatoes, cars, avocados, refrigerators, palm oil, cell phones, coffee, microchips, bananas, drywall, oranges, and other products and foods is fragile and susceptible to collapse. It is far from the shorter trip of the past where the local farm or garden was your resource.
So, when we ask ourselves how long this downward economic cycle will last compared to similar events in the past, we have first to understand how we are in uncharted territory. Every day for the last several decades, we have become increasingly more dependent upon resources further and further away from us. When these systems collapse, as we saw with the container ship getting stuck in the Suez, the pandemic shutdowns, the invasion of Ukraine, droughts in some places and floods in others, inflation and product scarcity, we are propelled further into uncertainty. Every year that has gone by, governments have failed to reign in financial systems that repeatedly fail. Now, the China Evergrande Groups default has global implications that make the Greek government’s debt crisis of 2009 seem like merely a bump in the road. Any downward economic cycle, especially a global one, will have deeper troughs than any that have occurred before.
HOW LONG CAN THIS GO ON?
Populations, economies, and nation-states increase and decline. Every culture at the apex of its development thought it was superior to every culture that collapsed before. It believed it could grow and expand forever and outlast the countless empires that proceeded it. Yet, history tells a different tale. There are specific signs to watch to help you determine if you are on the road to recovery or racing down a road towards a larger civilization or societal collapse. The fall of complex society resulting in the loss of cultural identity, socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of all sanctioned government structures, and a significant rise in lawlessness and violence are all the worst possible outcomes.
So, while there will be a recovery phase at some point, it may not be as wonderful as you hope it to be. Here are a few signs to watch that will help you determine which road you are on.
UTILITY FAILURES
However, these minor failings are amplified in the throes of an economic collapse. Maintenance and repair fall to the wayside simultaneously as pirating of utilities, and usage-induced breaks occur. A simple pipeline burst may stop the delivery of municipal water to millions. It might also not get repaired for days, weeks, months, or ever again. A downed powerline during an economic collapse could plunge millions into darkness and leave them without the ability to regulate their environment. It also might go unrepaired for days, weeks, months, or ever again. An alternative power supply, methods of disposing of human waste and trash, non-perishable shelf-stable foods, and even water will help insulate you from some utility failings.
Watch your utilities as an indicator of whether things are getting better or about to get worse. The more stories you see about these essential services failing, the more likely you are on the road to even worse times.
CRIME & CIVIL UNREST
CAPITAL RESTRICTIONS
SUPPLY CHAIN FAILURES
LARGE SCALE MIGRATIONS
WHAT SHOULD YOU BE DOING NOW?
Fundamentally, you must first get your water and food supplies in order. We constantly hear from subscribers who survived the sudden loss of a job and income because they were able to feed their families with their preps. We also hear from people who survived floods, tornadoes, even the Texas winter power outage because they had taken steps to prepare for disasters. It can be a big or personal disaster, and your preps will see you through. It can be a minor recession or a total societal and monetary collapse, and your preps will determine how you make it through. Chief among those preps is your food and water. Fundamental to you is how independent you can be of utility failings and food supply chain failures. If the grocery stores are empty or the water stops flowing to you, how long can you make it on your own?
Once the two primary components of food and water are somewhat squared away, you should be critically examining your energy dependence, your personal fiscal dependence, your personal security and shelter security, and your own plans to bug in or bug out. If you can examine all of these critical components and prep to strengthen them, a recession or economic collapse will less impact your survival. Sure, it will drastically change the way you have to live, but when your preps are integrated into your current life and not just tucked away on a shelf somewhere in your garage, you’re going to be okay.
It’s those who have no preps, no garden or grow nothing, no food set aside, no water, and so forth; those who are solely dependent on global systems functioning flawlessly who are really going to struggle and will eventually become desperate.
Nobody can really tell with any certainty where we will be in a year from today. With any economic downturn, there will be winners and losers after it is all over. Even economists contradict each other, while federal banks move solidly to a defensive posture and GDPs worldwide plummet. That will all happen regardless of what you do today, but what you do today to prep is truly what will determine where you are standing when the dust eventually does settle. As we said, recessions have two outcomes– either your economy begins to recover in an average of 17.5 months from the start, or your economy starts accelerating downward towards a more profound and deeper collapse. Prepping allows you to navigate better both possible outcomes.
We would invite you to look at some of our other blogs on prepping a year’s supply of food or water storage or energy solutions, and we will link to those from this blog. We can say with absolute certainty that we are still in the early stages. Yes, as bad as it may seem now and as high as prices are currently, I firmly believe that this is just the beginning of much worse to come. Even economists are reluctant to predict a recovery date. Prep now while you still have the time and resources and learn to incorporate that preparedness into your daily life. You will be thankful you did.
As always, stay safe out there.