The Brutal Reality
“Too many people want certainty amid the chaos of this world. But certainty is the fool’s dream and, thus, the charlatan’s selling point”– Brendon Burchard.
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THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE
China struggles with a COVID surge and scorching temperatures enveloping their entire nation. Fire season has only just begun in the northern hemisphere, and an area the size of Connecticut has already burned in Alaska. The Oak Fire in Yosemite is one of the first significant fires of an early fire season, and it already covers an area of 27 square miles. In France, more than 37,000 people were evacuated as fires ravaged the Gironde region. From Athens to Salamanca to Siberia to Tuscany, wildfires are raging and forcing many to evacuate their homes. July brought 40-year high temperatures to Stockholm, London, Dublin, Berlin, and Rome. In the U.S., 92 all-time record high temperatures were set in July. Extreme heat is here and increasing in frequency and duration over recent years. Drier than average temperatures for a longer than average period are drying out countries and sparking ever more extensive and more intense wildfires. A multi-decade megadrought grips the western United States, threatening to stall agriculture and forcing hydroelectric dams to reduce output and possibly even go offline until water levels increase again. These low water levels, the multi-decade drought, and the high heat occurring with greater frequency and duration should serve as warning signs. They should signal to us like the canary in a coal mine that things are bad and likely to get worse.
AND THE BAND PLAYED ON
At some point, though, after decades of a drought, when the river and aquifer levels drop lower than they have been in thousands of years when enough records are broken, we have to contemplate the genuine possibility that things will never return to anything like “normal.” After all, normal is simply the stable luxury we enjoyed from a climate that didn’t tilt too far in any one direction for too long. When it was normal, we experienced a population boom and expansion into previously uninhabitable areas because we could gently mold the edges of our environment. We experienced a green agricultural revolution where we could produce harvests larger than anything in the history of human agrarian culture. We were collectively able to make more food than we could even consume through fertilization and modern farming practices.
It’s safe to assume that the canary has died at this point. Let’s recognize that the models and designs that were intended for a stable normal world can no longer hold true for our future. Let’s accept that our delicate balance has just tipped passed its tipping point. What now? What does the future hold for us? How will this change the way we are living right now? Let’s stop arguing about the causes or the half-measures that can only soften the inevitable blow because this new reality of change has arrived. Here’s the true impact this singular event will have on our world.
BRACE FOR IMPACT
FOOD
ENERGY
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION
The immediate impact right now is already being felt by the people in the region and the surrounding region in the form of higher electricity and water bills. This will continue to get worse. Eventually, this crisis will not only express itself in the form of higher prices but also result in power outages and water rationing. Extrapolated out even further along the current trajectory and once thriving communities will become dead zones. Millions of people will be forced to migrate from these areas chasing jobs and affordable living. These environmental migrants will find it challenging to make a new home in some areas of the United States. Even as some areas dry out, others are flooding.
We know that rainstorms are getting more intense. Flash, surge, and storm flooding are becoming more severe, intense, and damaging. For the eastern United States, that has resulted in up to 70% more heavy downpours each year. From St. Louis to Santa Fe to Houston to St Petersburg to New York City, some areas are getting inundated with historic rainfall even as the southwestern part of the country dries and prays for rain. The problems of the drought in half of the country are easily exacerbated by the deluge in other parts of the country. Displaced people will have difficulty finding habitable regions to call home.
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
We have no choice but to ride this out. It’s here, it’s happening, and things will not return to what it was before. This is the new normal. No matter where you are geographically in relation to the southwest United States, you should see these issues are the canary in the coal mine.
Accept that water rationing and power outages will become the new normal, and get your water and energy preps in order. Understand that forced environmental migration will become a reality for millions and will impact millions more before this crisis passes if it ever does. Specifically, you should be watching for the current levels of Lake Mead to get anywhere near the 950-foot mark. That’s just 90 feet more from where it is right now, and the lake is forecasted to lose 26 more feet in the next year. It could reach that dangerously low level as early as January of 2024 by current projections.
When it does, it will be a dead pool, and we are in irreversible trouble that only a decade or longer of a consistent massive snowpack and rainfall will resolve. Much of our collective future will be determined by whether it rains and snows in record-breaking amounts in the southwest region. That could signal a return to what we have known for years as a more normal weather pattern. Every indicator now points to snow or rain being only an unfulfilled prayer, so I would encourage you to prep like this situation will get far worse before it gets even slightly better. What’s that old saying, “Praise God, but pass the ammunition.” Continue to pray for rain, but prep your piece of the world like it won’t come.
Let’s stop pretending we will return to anything close to normal. Instead of blaming anyone or anything else, look to what you can do today with your preps to increase your odds of survival. Accept that there’s a hole in the boat, and while others argue about the hole, find your lifevest.
As always, stay safe out there.